Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $51,420$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(4.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,282.9}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(52,282.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,415$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(611 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,229.0}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,229.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,025$ on 2020-05-07

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $221,447$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{216,189.8}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(216,189.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26,070$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,088.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 32.0)}}\) (asimptote \(25,088.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $66,866$ on 2020-05-07

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $215,858$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.6 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{211,882.4}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(211,882.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,958$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,330.8}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(29,330.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $89,624$ on 2020-05-07

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $207,977$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,423.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(217,423.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,689$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,077.5}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(31,077.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $176,318$ on 2020-05-07

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $174,918$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.71 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{176,720.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(176,720.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25,990$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,427.9}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(25,427.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $93,737$ on 2020-05-07

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,973$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(4.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,588.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(42,588.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,306$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(488 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,309.7}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 35.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,309.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36,520$ on 2020-05-07

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,623$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,196.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(28,196.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,040$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(176 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,197.5}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,197.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,612$ on 2020-05-07

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $22,385$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,291.9}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(23,291.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,403$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(50.6 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,553.5}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,553.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,872$ on 2020-05-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 97%
Luxembourg recovered 91%
Austria recovered 85%
Switzerland recovered 83%
Malta recovered 81%
Germany recovered 72%
Croatia recovered 68%
Andorra recovered 64%
North Macedonia recovered 59%
Denmark recovered 52%
Slovakia recovered 40%
Czechia recovered 37%
Spain recovered 34%
Italy recovered 17%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,801$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(376 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.36 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.4}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 22.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36$ on 2020-05-07

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,859$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(658 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,708.9}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 30.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,708.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $100$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(15.8 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96.1}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 26.4)}}\) (asimptote \(96.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $254$ on 2020-05-07

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,752$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,153.1}{1 + 10^{-0.082 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(15,153.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $609$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(74.9 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{612.8}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 30.3)}}\) (asimptote \(612.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,445$ on 2020-05-07

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,126$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(5.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,320.8}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(29,320.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,810$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(179 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,806.8}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,806.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,416$ on 2020-05-07